STABLE TV × MARTHA ANN (UA)
Full Funnel Impact. 120d window. Dec 27, 2025 - Apr 26, 2026.
Period window
Default: Era. Phase 1 hero, -24% / 8-week window.
Pulse · 7-14D · Apr 12 - Apr 26, 2026Tactical · 14-30D · Mar 27 - Apr 26, 2026Confidence · 30-60D · Feb 25 - Apr 26, 2026Lift · 60-90D · Jan 26 - Apr 26, 2026Phase Compare · 90-120D · Dec 27, 2025 - Apr 26, 2026Era · 120-180D · Oct 28, 2025 - Apr 26, 2026Full Arc · 180D+ · May 2025 - Apr 2026
Phase Compare read. Phase 2 scale (Oct - Dec 2025, holiday TV cuts). Halo CAC $13.5 — drift toward baseline as TV dipped, then re-locked at -6% when TV restored.
Operational view below. Same underlying data, alternate framings live in the methodology card. Methodology card ↓ shows all three with the math.
Phase Compare read
Phase 2 scale (Oct - Dec 2025, holiday TV cuts). Halo CAC $13.5 — drift toward baseline as TV dipped, then re-locked at -6% when TV restored.

Where the lift shows up.

population default · case-study-blinded-DTCL1

The proof TV is working. TV is unclickable, so the human response shows up downstream - in brand search, direct visits, organic, and conversion paths. Visible in GA4 within 48 hours of meaningful spend changes. This is the layer CFOs trust because they can validate it without our tools.

Synthetic mock · methodology preview. Dashboard shell + ingestion plumbing + per-layer compute skills are scaffolded and deployed; the actual measurement engines (mix model fitter, cohort-CLV model, geo holdouts, brand-pulse LLM) wire to brand data at onboarding.

Lift by channel · TV-flight window vs TV-dark baseline

channel
lift % · TV-flight vs TV-dark window
Δ
Meta
+4.6%
Google Search
+8.3%
Google PMax/DG
+6.5%
YouTube
+4.0%
TikTok
+0.0%
Reddit
+0.0%
Email/SMS
+5.1%
Affiliate
+0.0%
Direct/Organic
+7.1%

Method: rolling 14-day partial correlation between TV spend and downstream channel revenue, controlled for seasonality + promo cadence. When TV ramps, brand search + direct + Pmax should follow within 5-21 days depending on the channel's natural lag.

AEO / GEO surface rate · 12 weeks · LLM brand visibility

Weekly query batch hits gpt-4o + Claude Sonnet 4.6 + Perplexity sonar with 30-40 brand-relevant prompts. Tracks brand mentions + citations in LLM outputs. Rising surface rate = brand discoverability is improving in AI-powered search. Weekly query batch hits gpt-4o + Claude Sonnet + Perplexity sonar-pro with ~30 brand-relevant prompts; local Ollama parses brand mentions + citations from each response. Cost: ~$40-55/mo per brand for the LLM API calls (in v1 ship per strategic roadmap).