STABLE TV × MARTHA ANN (UA)
Full Funnel Impact. 180d window. Oct 28, 2025 - Apr 26, 2026.
Period window
Default: Era. Phase 1 hero, -24% / 8-week window.
Pulse · 7-14D · Apr 12 - Apr 26, 2026Tactical · 14-30D · Mar 27 - Apr 26, 2026Confidence · 30-60D · Feb 25 - Apr 26, 2026Lift · 60-90D · Jan 26 - Apr 26, 2026Phase Compare · 90-120D · Dec 27, 2025 - Apr 26, 2026Era · 120-180D · Oct 28, 2025 - Apr 26, 2026Full Arc · 180D+ · May 2025 - Apr 2026
Era read. Phase 1 hero peak. 3wk Sep 22 - Oct 12 2025. Halo CAC $12.41 vs $14.37 baseline. -14%. Peak week Sep 29 -25%. First 8 weeks averaged -24%. Halo MER 1.28×.
Operational view below. Same underlying data, alternate framings live in the methodology card. Methodology card ↓ shows all three with the math.
Era read
Phase 1 hero peak. 3wk Sep 22 - Oct 12 2025. Halo CAC $12.41 vs $14.37 baseline. -14%. Peak week Sep 29 -25%. First 8 weeks averaged -24%. Halo MER 1.28×.

Plan tomorrow's budget. See CAC move now.

Hill saturation · per-tactic · liveMP

The operator's allocator. Each row is a tactic with the brand's past-3-day average daily spend and the Hill-saturation curve fitted from mix model. Slide a budget. Predicted marginal CAC, blended CAC, and weekly new-customer volume re-compute on the spot. Headroom = scale. Saturated = optimize before adding budget. Over ceiling = pull back.

Synthetic mock · methodology preview. Dashboard shell + ingestion plumbing + per-layer compute skills are scaffolded and deployed; the actual measurement engines (mix model fitter, cohort-CLV model, geo holdouts, brand-pulse LLM) wire to brand data at onboarding.
Daily Spend
$46.3K
Predicted Marginal Halo-CAC
$187.9
Predicted Weekly New Customers
2,503
LTV / Payback Ceiling
$160
LTV $580 / 2.5× target
Showing P3D average. Drag a slider to plan tomorrow.
TacticP3D avg $/dayProposed $/dayΔPredicted mCACStatus
Brand-layer · $27.8K P3D · $27.8K proposed
CTV (UA)$12,500
-$197Above ceiling
YouTube / OLV$4,200
-$193Above ceiling
Meta brand-layer$6,800
-$286Above ceiling
TikTok brand-layer$2,400
-$266Above ceiling
Google Demand Gen brand-layer$1,900
-$315Above ceiling
Mid-tier · $8.3K P3D · $8.3K proposed
Meta mid-tier$3,200
-$173Saturated
Reddit mid-tier$800
-$163Saturated
Snapchat mid-tier$1,100
-$191Above ceiling
Google Demand Gen mid-tier$1,400
-$182Saturated
Non-brand Search mid-tier$1,800
-$136Saturated
Performance · $10.2K P3D · $10.2K proposed
Meta performance$4,100
-$341Above ceiling
Google Brand Search$1,700
-$41Headroom
Google PMax$2,300
-$161Saturated
Non-brand Search performance$1,500
-$140Saturated
Affiliate$600
-$58Headroom
PORTFOLIO$46.3K$46.3K/day-$129.5 blendedflat
Neutral move. Mix sits at P3D average. Predicted CAC and volume hold.

Mix is steady. Marginal moves only.

Stable Baseline POV: marginal change. Worth running for the data, not for the impact.

Method. Each tactic has a Hill-saturation curve txns(spend) = max · spend^k / (spend^k + k_half^k) fitted from 60-90 days of spend × txn data via open-source mix-model fitting. Marginal CAC at any spend level is the local derivative, what the next dollar costs. Predicted Marginal Halo-CAC = spend-weighted average of per-tactic mCAC across performance + mid-tier tactics only (brand-layer TV spend held out of the numerator, all blended txns in the denominator). The halo-forward read of next-dollar efficiency when TV is scaling. Default tactic params are population estimates calibrated to this brand's case-study profile; brand-specific re-fits land at onboarding (day 60+).